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	<title>Comments on: Gut feel investing 101&#8230;</title>
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		<title>By: Diligent Nears the Deadpool at diversity.net.nz</title>
		<link>http://www.diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/comment-page-1/#comment-15023</link>
		<dc:creator>Diligent Nears the Deadpool at diversity.net.nz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:04:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/06/28/#comment-15023</guid>
		<description>[...] http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/ Share the love...Close&#160;Bookmark and Share This Page Save to Browser Favorites / BookmarksAskbackflipblinklistBlogBookmarkBloglinesBlogMarksBlogsvineBuddyMarksBUMPzee!CiteULikeco.mmentsConnoteadel.icio.usDiggdiigoDotNetKicksDropJackdzoneFacebookFarkFavesFeed Me LinksFriendsitefolkd.comFurlGoogleHuggJamespotJeqqKaboodlekirtsylinkaGoGoLinkedInLinksMarkerMa.gnoliaMister WongMixxMySpaceMyWebNetvouzNewsvineoneviewOnlyWirePlugIMPropellerRedditRojoSegnaloShoutwireSimpySlashdotSphereSphinnSpurlSquidooStumbleUponTechnoratiThisNextTwitterWebrideWindows LiveWorlds MoviesYahoo!Email This to a FriendCopy HTML:&#160;&#160;If you like this then please subscribe to the RSS Feed.Powered by Bookmarkify&#8482;             More&#160;&#187; [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] <a href="http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/" rel="nofollow">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/</a> Share the love&#8230;Close&nbsp;Bookmark and Share This Page Save to Browser Favorites / BookmarksAskbackflipblinklistBlogBookmarkBloglinesBlogMarksBlogsvineBuddyMarksBUMPzee!CiteULikeco.mmentsConnoteadel.icio.usDiggdiigoDotNetKicksDropJackdzoneFacebookFarkFavesFeed Me LinksFriendsitefolkd.comFurlGoogleHuggJamespotJeqqKaboodlekirtsylinkaGoGoLinkedInLinksMarkerMa.gnoliaMister WongMixxMySpaceMyWebNetvouzNewsvineoneviewOnlyWirePlugIMPropellerRedditRojoSegnaloShoutwireSimpySlashdotSphereSphinnSpurlSquidooStumbleUponTechnoratiThisNextTwitterWebrideWindows LiveWorlds MoviesYahoo!Email This to a FriendCopy HTML:&nbsp;&nbsp;If you like this then please subscribe to the RSS Feed.Powered by Bookmarkify&trade;             More&nbsp;&raquo; [...]</p>
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		<title>By: George</title>
		<link>http://www.diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/comment-page-1/#comment-4881</link>
		<dc:creator>George</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 05:19:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/06/28/#comment-4881</guid>
		<description>Interesting views, I didn&#039;t understand DIL when it listed so I didn&#039;t touch it, but I bought into both XRO &amp; BFW.  

My father was an accountant and understood their product, but believed it would still be a hard market as others do offer other similar online products, although XRO is way ahead, those others already have a large customer base.

BFW choose an very unusual way to list which caused it to be undersubscribed, and cost it a lot in the process, but I eat there every so often and believe that they too have a competitive advantage in a very competitive market.  Roberts used to run Redbull and turned that from a $10m revenue business to over $200m if my memory serves me well.


Now since listing XRO went to 1.15 down to 70 and is now at 93(13 months at 9 months it was 75).  BFW went from 1.00 to 0.37, and now at 0.50 (9 months).

To date I wouldn&#039;t have considered XRO or BFW a success they have both traded below issue price and are burning all the cash they received from their IPOs, as you would expect, they are both growth companies.

The thing is, most investors who bought XRO were recommeneded it by the brokers, and advising community, when it dropped their advisors would not have sold off, as they are experienced and would have provided (hopefully) good advise, and said it was a growth stock.

BFW on the other hand has shareholders who don&#039;t use advisors, don&#039;t normally invest and don&#039;t have the experience to make good decisions when they risky growth stock they chose halves in (perceived) value because of illiquidity.

XRO has announced massive increases in customers, BFW has announced ambitious plans for a launch into Dubai.  Both of these are positive for both companies.

My thinking is I still eat at BFW, and I still see others doing it to.  If they succeed there will be good revenue upside, and when these positive announcements happen who is going to buy the share?  Everyone, because currently just like you, nobody owns the share, as no one was advised to buy it.

I don&#039;t think you can write off or promote either as an utter failure or success when both are currently trading at a paper loss.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting views, I didn&#8217;t understand DIL when it listed so I didn&#8217;t touch it, but I bought into both XRO &amp; BFW.  </p>
<p>My father was an accountant and understood their product, but believed it would still be a hard market as others do offer other similar online products, although XRO is way ahead, those others already have a large customer base.</p>
<p>BFW choose an very unusual way to list which caused it to be undersubscribed, and cost it a lot in the process, but I eat there every so often and believe that they too have a competitive advantage in a very competitive market.  Roberts used to run Redbull and turned that from a $10m revenue business to over $200m if my memory serves me well.</p>
<p>Now since listing XRO went to 1.15 down to 70 and is now at 93(13 months at 9 months it was 75).  BFW went from 1.00 to 0.37, and now at 0.50 (9 months).</p>
<p>To date I wouldn&#8217;t have considered XRO or BFW a success they have both traded below issue price and are burning all the cash they received from their IPOs, as you would expect, they are both growth companies.</p>
<p>The thing is, most investors who bought XRO were recommeneded it by the brokers, and advising community, when it dropped their advisors would not have sold off, as they are experienced and would have provided (hopefully) good advise, and said it was a growth stock.</p>
<p>BFW on the other hand has shareholders who don&#8217;t use advisors, don&#8217;t normally invest and don&#8217;t have the experience to make good decisions when they risky growth stock they chose halves in (perceived) value because of illiquidity.</p>
<p>XRO has announced massive increases in customers, BFW has announced ambitious plans for a launch into Dubai.  Both of these are positive for both companies.</p>
<p>My thinking is I still eat at BFW, and I still see others doing it to.  If they succeed there will be good revenue upside, and when these positive announcements happen who is going to buy the share?  Everyone, because currently just like you, nobody owns the share, as no one was advised to buy it.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think you can write off or promote either as an utter failure or success when both are currently trading at a paper loss.</p>
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		<title>By: Craig</title>
		<link>http://www.diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/comment-page-1/#comment-4872</link>
		<dc:creator>Craig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 01:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/06/28/#comment-4872</guid>
		<description>No problems Ben and thanks for the reply.  I just found it strange at the time that you likened Diligent to Xero when I felt they had completely different business models and target market.  I see Xero as &quot;consumer&quot; or &quot;retail&quot; SaaS product where I would class Dilgent as a commerical or enterpirse SaaS offering.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No problems Ben and thanks for the reply.  I just found it strange at the time that you likened Diligent to Xero when I felt they had completely different business models and target market.  I see Xero as &#8220;consumer&#8221; or &#8220;retail&#8221; SaaS product where I would class Dilgent as a commerical or enterpirse SaaS offering.</p>
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		<title>By: Ben Kepes</title>
		<link>http://www.diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/comment-page-1/#comment-4868</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Kepes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:16:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/06/28/#comment-4868</guid>
		<description>@craig - thanks for the comment. My concerns were raised when it came out about the less than kosher connections and business histories of some of the players. At face value (and when I wrote the initial post) diligent looked good from a business perspective. True I should have queried the very business model and I take your criticisms as justified - cheers!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@craig &#8211; thanks for the comment. My concerns were raised when it came out about the less than kosher connections and business histories of some of the players. At face value (and when I wrote the initial post) diligent looked good from a business perspective. True I should have queried the very business model and I take your criticisms as justified &#8211; cheers!</p>
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		<title>By: Craig</title>
		<link>http://www.diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/comment-page-1/#comment-4867</link>
		<dc:creator>Craig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:13:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/06/28/#comment-4867</guid>
		<description>Hi Ben,

It&#039;s all very well highlighting Diligent&#039;s NZX failure, but you hyped them up when their IPO was announced.  You&#039;ve suggested in this post that you had concerns with their IPO, yet at the time you said &quot;It’s a very good thing - a stable mate for Xero&quot;.  If you had genuine concerns then why not highlight them at the time?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Ben,</p>
<p>It&#8217;s all very well highlighting Diligent&#8217;s NZX failure, but you hyped them up when their IPO was announced.  You&#8217;ve suggested in this post that you had concerns with their IPO, yet at the time you said &#8220;It’s a very good thing &#8211; a stable mate for Xero&#8221;.  If you had genuine concerns then why not highlight them at the time?</p>
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		<title>By: julian stone</title>
		<link>http://www.diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/07/01/comment-page-1/#comment-4864</link>
		<dc:creator>julian stone</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2008 21:43:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://diversity.net.nz/gut-feel-investing-101/2008/06/28/#comment-4864</guid>
		<description>My gut tells me not to invest in paper assets until you have your tangible assets secure (ie: house). Even then, I&#039;m more of a commodities man myself. (ie: gold, silver, oil...)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My gut tells me not to invest in paper assets until you have your tangible assets secure (ie: house). Even then, I&#8217;m more of a commodities man myself. (ie: gold, silver, oil&#8230;)</p>
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