I set up my Facebook profile nearly a year ago now. At the time it seemed like Facebook was going to adultise the Bebo/MySpace social networking space.

It all went swimmingly for awhile there – my news feed showed a lot of new stuff every few hours, indicating that my friend base was actively using FB and adding content. Since then my friend numbers have gone up (a constant source of amusemet for my wife) yet the content showing in newsfeed has plummeted.

There’s now only a hard core bunch of a dozen or so people providing content to the feed (and much of that is automatically created lifestreaming content). So, is Facebook already passe?

Its hard to discount a business that Microsoft has shown views with sufficient confidence to invest in (or maybe the MS investment is proof that it’s over for FB), but I can’t help but think that the early adopters have gone some place else to drink from the cool-aid (ups to Kaila for that phrase), the medium adopters are deserting as FB loses its relevance for them, and the late adopters haven’t even got around to signing up yet.

So where is everybody now? Twitter seems to be creating more of a buzz among the technorati and the others, well maybe they’ve gone back to email or pickg up the phone.

In true Diversity Blogs “going out on a limb” style – we’re predicting that the next 12 months will see a drastic reduction in Facebook active users and traffic, and flowing on from that their value, validity and viability.

You read it here first…

Ben Kepes

Ben Kepes is a technology evangelist, an investor, a commentator and a business adviser. Ben covers the convergence of technology, mobile, ubiquity and agility, all enabled by the Cloud. His areas of interest extend to enterprise software, software integration, financial/accounting software, platforms and infrastructure as well as articulating technology simply for everyday users.


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